Willem II 1-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Jan 2024

Willem II
1-1 HT 1-1
Ajax II
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Willem II vs Ajax II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.32
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.89
Over 2.5
63%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.7
No
42%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.08
2-3 Goals
37%
2.06
4-5 Goals
28%
2.51
6+ Goals
18%
5.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
20.9
X/1
22%
3.63
X/2
5%
17.8
X/X
8%
8.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.7
2/2
8%
12.35
2/X
7%
20.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
71%
-10.7pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.3pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.4pp
37%
Under 2.5
31%
+6.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
69%
-6.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
55%
+3.1pp
42%
BTTS No
45%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v Ajax II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -3%
1.91/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/2.23
+3% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 80%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
26.2 Crosses 11.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

Willem II vs Ajax II Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Ajax II
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.62 xG 0.61
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
317 Passes 502
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.11.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
24.02.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 2-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
31.10.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
30.03.2014 Willem II Willem II 7-1 HT 4-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
15.09.2013 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2

Willem II 1-1 Ajax II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-1
AWAY Ajax II
1.26 xG 0.52
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
335 Passes 333
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II and Ajax II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Willem II at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Willem II had 52% of the ball to Ajax II's 48%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.26 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Willem II and 1.00 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Ajax II?

Willem II 1-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Willem II 60%, draw 21%, Ajax II 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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