Izarra vs Alfaro Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Izarra v Alfaro — Team-Based Signals
Izarra vs Alfaro Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Izarra 1-4 Alfaro — Actual Match Statistics
Alfaro ran out comfortable winners over Izarra 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Izarra at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Izarra had 61% of the ball to Alfaro's 39%, shots finished 19-9.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Izarra and 0.33 for Alfaro.
What was the final score of Izarra vs Alfaro?
Izarra 1-4 Alfaro in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Izarra vs Alfaro?
Before kick-off our model rated a Izarra win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Izarra 45%, draw 25%, Alfaro 29%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.