Izarra 1-4 Alfaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.6
Over
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
41%
4-5
19%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.2pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Izarra The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfaro The Market 28%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.25/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/2.37
-3% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -49%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Izarra
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Alfaro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2024 Alfaro Alfaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Izarra Izarra İS4
19.02.2023 Alfaro Alfaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Izarra Izarra İS4
02.10.2022 Izarra Izarra 2-0 HT 0-0 Alfaro Alfaro İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Izarra
1-4
AWAY Alfaro
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Izarra vs Alfaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfaro ran out comfortable winners over Izarra 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Izarra at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Izarra had 61% of the ball to Alfaro's 39%, shots finished 19-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Izarra and 0.33 for Alfaro.

What was the final score of Izarra vs Alfaro?

Izarra 1-4 Alfaro in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Izarra vs Alfaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Izarra win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Izarra 45%, draw 25%, Alfaro 29%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Izarra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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