Carrarese 0-4 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 19 Jan 2025

Carrarese
0-4 HT 0-2
Spezia
📅19/01/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Carrarese vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.88
No
60%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
15%
4.33
6+ Goals
7%
22.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 39% vs market 32.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.0
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
14%
6.7
X/2
15%
5.22
X/X
14%
3.71
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.37
2/X
6%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.6pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.5pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.4pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carrarese v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carrarese EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 43%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -1%
1.25/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.19
-36% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
19.9 Crosses 21.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Carrarese vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carrarese
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Spezia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.83 xG 3.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 11
5 Corners 9
208 Passes 241
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 33
22 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.09.2024 Spezia Spezia 4-2 HT 1-1 Carrarese Carrarese İTB

Carrarese 0-4 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carrarese
0-4
AWAY Spezia
0.49 xG 1.73
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
316 Passes 225
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Carrarese vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia ran out comfortable winners over Carrarese 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Spezia found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Carrarese had 55% of the ball to Spezia's 45%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 0.49 to 1.73.

What was the final score of Carrarese vs Spezia?

Carrarese 0-4 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carrarese vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carrarese win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Carrarese 36%, draw 29%, Spezia 36%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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