Sassuolo 5-3 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.89
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
24%
3.92
X/2
6%
11.8
X/X
9%
5.47
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
23.4
2/2
7%
10.05
2/X
7%
18.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-2.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 20%
+13% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / -9%
2.62/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.17
+83% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +27%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
415 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
14.9 Crosses 16.9
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Südtirol
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.10 xG 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
474 Passes 339
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 Südtirol Südtirol 0-1 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
5-3
AWAY Südtirol
1.85 xG 1.00
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
475 Passes 165
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
25 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo saw off Südtirol 5-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sassuolo as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sassuolo had 67% of the ball to Südtirol's 33%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.85 to 1.00.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Südtirol?

Sassuolo 5-3 Südtirol in the Italy - Serie B on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 58%, draw 23%, Südtirol 19%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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