Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.96
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.94
1/2
10%
29.5
1/X
5%
12.6
X/1
14%
5.83
X/2
12%
5.68
X/X
13%
4.26
2/1
9%
30.0
2/2
11%
3.79
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +0%
1.25/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.44
-21% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 74%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
21.8 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.01 xG 1.31
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
271 Passes 283
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
07.02.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 1-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.08.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-1 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.02.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
14.08.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
26.02.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
2-1
AWAY Mainz 05
2.14 xG 1.68
33% Ball Possession 67%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 2
201 Passes 518
64% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin nicked a narrow win over Mainz 05 2-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Union Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 33% of the ball to Mainz 05's 67%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.14 to 1.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Union Berlin and 0.83 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Mainz 05?

Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 40%, draw 27%, Mainz 05 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ BTTS No
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