Union Berlin vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Union Berlin v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals
Union Berlin vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 2-0
Mainz 05
AL1
2-1
HT 1-0
Mainz 05
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Union Berlin
AL1
3-1
HT 1-0
Mainz 05
AL1
Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics
Union Berlin nicked a narrow win over Mainz 05 2-1.
Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Union Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Union Berlin had 33% of the ball to Mainz 05's 67%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.14 to 1.68.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Union Berlin and 0.83 for Mainz 05.
What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Mainz 05?
Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Mainz 05?
Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 40%, draw 27%, Mainz 05 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin) — while BTTS No went the other way.