Paderborn 1-2 Hertha Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.23
Over Pick
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
22%
4.49
2-3
39%
1.88
4-5
27%
2.77
6+
12%
7.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.91
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
13%
5.3
X/2
13%
6.95
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1
10%
22.1
2/2
15%
4.42
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.0pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn The Market 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Hertha Berlin The Market 34%
-4% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +11%
1.97/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.48
+7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
20.5 Crosses 18.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Hertha Berlin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.78 xG 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
358 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.08.2024 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 1-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
05.04.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 2-3 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
28.10.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 3-1 HT 2-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
15.02.2020 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
21.09.2019 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
05.04.2015 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
1-2
AWAY Hertha Berlin
3.18 xG 1.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
333 Passes 297
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
45 Box Touches 27
25 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin edged past Paderborn 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; Hertha Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paderborn had 54% of the ball to Hertha Berlin's 46%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 3.18 to 1.60 — on chances, Paderborn could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hertha Berlin led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Paderborn and 2.17 for Hertha Berlin.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin?

Paderborn 1-2 Hertha Berlin in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 40%, draw 25%, Hertha Berlin 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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