Hertha Berlin 1-2 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.51
Over 2.5
64%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.43
No
38%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.65
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.62
6+ Goals
16%
6.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.75
1/2
9%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
19%
5.15
X/2
11%
7.07
X/X
11%
5.98
2/1
7%
21.35
2/2
16%
4.25
2/X
5%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
36%
-0.3pp
64%
Over 2.5
64%
+0.3pp
62%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.8pp
38%
BTTS No
34%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 34%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
2.16/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.56
+104% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
17.4 Crosses 15.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Paderborn
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.54 xG 1.79
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
280 Passes 357
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 2-3 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
28.10.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 3-1 HT 2-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
15.02.2020 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
21.09.2019 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
05.04.2015 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
02.11.2014 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
1-2
AWAY Paderborn
0.45 xG 1.74
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
408 Passes 245
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 28
28 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn nicked a narrow win over Hertha Berlin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Paderborn found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 59% of the ball to Paderborn's 41%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.45 to 1.74 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paderborn's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hertha Berlin had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hertha Berlin and 1.33 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Paderborn?

Hertha Berlin 1-2 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hertha Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 40%, draw 24%, Paderborn 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hertha Berlin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hertha Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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