Paços De Ferreira 2-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
23%
4.35
6+ Goals
10%
23.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 36%
-13% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.40/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.18
-21% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.1 Crosses 17.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Mafra
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.42 xG 1.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
304 Passes 283
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Mafra Mafra 0-1 HT 0-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
28.01.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
19.08.2023 Mafra Mafra 2-1 HT 2-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
2-1
AWAY Mafra
1.38 xG 1.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
232 Passes 284
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira nicked a narrow win over Mafra 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Paços De Ferreira made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 44% of the ball to Mafra's 56%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.38 to 1.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mafra led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.00 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Mafra?

Paços De Ferreira 2-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 38%, draw 25%, Mafra 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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