Mafra 0-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 10 Aug 2024

Mafra
0-1 HT 0-1
Paços De Ferreira
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Mafra vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.89
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
18.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 30% vs market 28.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.0pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.5pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mafra v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.49/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.34
+5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.1 Crosses 20.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Mafra vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.70 xG 1.97
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
247 Passes 366
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
19.08.2023 Mafra Mafra 2-1 HT 2-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2

Mafra 0-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
0-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.57 xG 0.31
64% Ball Possession 36%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
354 Passes 180
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira squeezed past Mafra 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Paços De Ferreira found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mafra had 64% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 36%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.57 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mafra had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mafra and 0.50 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Paços De Ferreira?

Mafra 0-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mafra 32%, draw 29%, Paços De Ferreira 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paços De Ferreira), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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