Maritimo 2-2 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.66
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.24
6+ Goals
8%
20.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 33% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-11.6pp
32%
Draw
25%
+6.8pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 22%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.89/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.15
-36% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.9 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tondela
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.36 xG 1.99
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
306 Passes 275
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 Tondela Tondela 0-3 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
28.10.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 2-2 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
03.04.2022 Maritimo Maritimo 1-3 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR
07.11.2021 Tondela Tondela 4-2 HT 3-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
16.02.2021 Tondela Tondela 2-1 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
26.09.2020 Maritimo Maritimo 2-1 HT 2-1 Tondela Tondela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
2-2
AWAY Tondela
0.87 xG 1.02
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 Passes 194
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
34 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo and Tondela shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Maritimo at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maritimo had 61% of the ball to Tondela's 39%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.87 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Maritimo and 2.00 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Tondela?

Maritimo 2-2 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 44%, draw 32%, Tondela 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
10 Aug 2024
16:00 Mafra vs Paços De Ferreira Analysis →
17:30 Leixoes vs Benfica II Analysis →
20:00 Academico Viseu vs Chaves Analysis →