Paços De Ferreira 0-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.67
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
4.05
6+ Goals
9%
19.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 31%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.46/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.21
+44% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.2 Crosses 19.0
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Mafra
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.07 xG 2.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
323 Passes 256
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.08.2023 Mafra Mafra 2-1 HT 2-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
0-1
AWAY Mafra
2.87 xG 1.02
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
408 Passes 238
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
39 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra nicked a narrow win over Paços De Ferreira 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Paços De Ferreira at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 60% of the ball to Mafra's 40%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 2.87 to 1.02 — on chances, Paços De Ferreira could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Mafra?

Paços De Ferreira 0-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 43%, draw 25%, Mafra 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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