AVS 3-2 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2024

AVS
3-2 HT 2-2
Maritimo
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.71
6+ Goals
7%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.90/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.23/1.23
-49% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
31.6 Crosses 17.6
3.6 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Maritimo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.83 xG 0.41
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
288 Passes 318
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 6
18.08.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 0-1 HT 0-0 AVS AVS POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
3-2
AWAY Maritimo
1.10 xG 1.71
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
222 Passes 190
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AVS vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS nicked a narrow win over Maritimo 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 31% — and on the day AVS made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AVS had 54% of the ball to Maritimo's 46%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.10 to 1.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured Maritimo.

What was the final score of AVS vs Maritimo?

AVS 3-2 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated a AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AVS 40%, draw 30%, Maritimo 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AVS) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AVS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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