Porto II 3-0 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.8pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 24%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +23%
1.76/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.47
+5% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +22%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.4 Crosses 12.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
1W-1D-1L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.62 xG 1.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
381 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.08.2023 CF Os Belenenses 1-1 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
04.02.2023 Porto II Porto II 1-2 HT 1-1 CF Os Belenenses POR2
14.08.2022 CF Os Belenenses 2-3 HT 1-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
POST-MATCH Porto II vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II cruised past CF Os Belenenses 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto II as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Porto II and 1.67 for CF Os Belenenses.

What was the final score of Porto II vs CF Os Belenenses?

Porto II 3-0 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Porto II 48%, draw 26%, CF Os Belenenses 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto II) ✗ Under 2.5
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