UD Oliveirense 0-1 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
12%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 27% vs market 26.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+0.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
1.70/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.36
+43% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.6 Crosses 11.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 6.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Vilaverdense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.89 xG 3.12
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 290
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 4
20.08.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 1-2 HT 0-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
0-1
AWAY Vilaverdense
1.09 xG 1.56
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
357 Passes 193
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vilaverdense edged past UD Oliveirense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was UD Oliveirense at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 63% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 37%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.09 to 1.56.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Vilaverdense?

UD Oliveirense 0-1 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD Oliveirense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 46%, draw 27%, Vilaverdense 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (UD Oliveirense), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UD Oliveirense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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