Nacional 2-1 Torreense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.88
6+ Goals
12%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 31% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
16%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Torreense EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.77/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.25
+33% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.3 Crosses 19.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Torreense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.27 xG 2.62
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
310 Passes 342
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.08.2023 Torreense Torreense 3-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
04.02.2023 Nacional Nacional 3-1 HT 1-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
13.08.2022 Torreense Torreense 0-2 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
2-1
AWAY Torreense
2.41 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
27 Total Shots 9
12 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 3
292 Passes 319
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
41 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Torreense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional squeezed past Torreense 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nacional had 49% of the ball to Torreense's 51%, shots finished 27-9, expected goals 2.41 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nacional had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nacional and 1.33 for Torreense.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Torreense?

Nacional 2-1 Torreense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Torreense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nacional 46%, draw 28%, Torreense 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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