Sestri Levante 1-3 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 19 Feb 2024

📅19/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.91
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.74
Over 2.5
36%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.27
No
65%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.12
6+ Goals
7%
19.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 37% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+7.6pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.3pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-14.0pp
64%
Under 2.5
54%
+10.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
46%
-10.3pp
35%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.9pp
65%
BTTS No
60%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 69%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +4%
0.51/0.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.51
-40% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +51%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
235 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestri Levante
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Cesena
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
6 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.10.2023 Cesena Cesena 2-2 HT 1-1 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestri Levante
1-3
AWAY Cesena
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sestri Levante vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena got the better of Sestri Levante 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cesena as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sestri Levante had 53% of the ball to Cesena's 47%, shots finished 7-15.

What was the final score of Sestri Levante vs Cesena?

Sestri Levante 1-3 Cesena in the Italy - Serie C on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestri Levante vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sestri Levante 22%, draw 28%, Cesena 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cesena) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cesena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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