Aarau 3-0 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 19 Apr 2024

Aarau
3-0 HT 2-0
Thun
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2023/2024

Aarau vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
38%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.23
Over 2.5
44%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
4.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
20%
2.88
6+ Goals
9%
8.23
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.58 — our 32% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
25%
+7.9pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.5pp
38%
Away Win
50%
-12.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+15.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-15.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.7pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aarau v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 55%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -19%
0.44/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.49
+8% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
13.0 Crosses 18.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Aarau vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Thun
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.57 xG 1.97
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
307 Passes 293
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.02.2024 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
03.11.2023 Aarau Aarau 5-2 HT 3-0 Thun Thun İSV2
22.09.2023 Thun Thun 2-0 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
14.04.2023 Thun Thun 2-3 HT 0-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
28.01.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
07.10.2022 Aarau Aarau 2-2 HT 0-1 Thun Thun İSV2

Aarau 3-0 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
3-0
AWAY Thun
1.50 xG 1.98
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 11
290 Passes 277
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 36
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau cruised past Thun 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Aarau made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aarau had 49% of the ball to Thun's 51%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.50 to 1.98 — the balance of chances actually favoured Thun.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Aarau and 1.50 for Thun.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Thun?

Aarau 3-0 Thun in the Switzerland Challenge League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated an Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Aarau 33%, draw 29%, Thun 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Thun), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Thun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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