Bellinzona 4-0 Baden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.6
6+ Goals
7%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 32% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.4pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.1pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Baden EU Bookmakers 32%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-68% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.2 Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Baden
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 0.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 Passes 274
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
04.02.2024 Baden Baden 2-1 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
26.11.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 3-1 HT 2-1 Baden Baden İSV2
30.07.2023 Baden Baden 1-1 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
4-0
AWAY Baden
2.03 xG 0.46
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
211 Passes 243
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Baden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona ran out comfortable winners over Baden 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bellinzona as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bellinzona had 48% of the ball to Baden's 52%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.03 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bellinzona and 1.33 for Baden.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Baden?

Bellinzona 4-0 Baden in the Switzerland Challenge League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Baden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bellinzona win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 42%, draw 32%, Baden 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bellinzona), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bellinzona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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