Amstetten 1-4 Sturm Graz II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒19:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.43
No
38%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.92
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
18%
5.31
X/2
9%
6.68
X/X
14%
5.83
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
15%
4.02
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+2.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.6pp
62%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.5pp
38%
BTTS No
34%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amstetten EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 36%
-12% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.67/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/2.30
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
242 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 72%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.0 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amstetten
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Sturm Graz II
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 6
01.10.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 3-2 HT 0-0 Amstetten Amstetten AU2
21.04.2023 Amstetten Amstetten 5-0 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
16.10.2022 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 3-1 HT 0-0 Amstetten Amstetten AU2
POST-MATCH Amstetten vs Sturm Graz II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz II cruised past Amstetten 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Sturm Graz II made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Amstetten and 2.00 for Sturm Graz II.

What was the final score of Amstetten vs Sturm Graz II?

Amstetten 1-4 Sturm Graz II in the Austria - 1st Division on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amstetten vs Sturm Graz II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amstetten win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Amstetten 39%, draw 27%, Sturm Graz II 34%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Amstetten) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Amstetten) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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