Hearts 1-2 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Cup, 19 Apr 2025

Hearts
1-2 HT 1-1
Aberdeen
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Cup – 2024/2025

Hearts vs Aberdeen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.41
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
11%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.36
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
10%
5.39
X/2
15%
6.4
X/X
13%
4.64
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
16%
4.4
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-6.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.5pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v Aberdeen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 36%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.01/0.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.22
-99% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Hearts vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.29 xG 0.94
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
320 Passes 308
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.01.2025 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
01.12.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
06.10.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
27.01.2024 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 0-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
09.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-1 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
16.09.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP

Hearts 1-2 Aberdeen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
1-2
AWAY Aberdeen
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen nicked a narrow win over Hearts 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Aberdeen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hearts had 32% of the ball to Aberdeen's 68%, shots finished 7-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hearts and 1.00 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Aberdeen?

Hearts 1-2 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Cup on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hearts 34%, draw 28%, Aberdeen 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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