Las Palmas 1-0 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Apr 2025

Las Palmas
1-0 HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
44%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.82
Over
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 ✓
29%
3.15
2-3
42%
1.78
4-5
21%
3.58
6+
8%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.15 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.69
1/2
9%
24.2
1/X
7%
17.15
X/1
13%
10.4
X/2
14%
4.1
X/X
15%
5.14
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.11
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
19%
+10.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
44%
Away Win
57%
-13.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 61%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -26%
1.31/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.93
-15% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 82%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
22.2 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.61 xG 1.91
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
455 Passes 363
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.11.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
17.02.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 5-0 HT 2-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
03.11.2023 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
28.01.2018 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
26.08.2017 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-5 HT 0-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
29.04.2017 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-5 HT 0-3 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Las Palmas 1-0 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
1-0
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.61 xG 0.79
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 452
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Palmas nicked a narrow win over Atletico Madrid 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Las Palmas had 41% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 59%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.61 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Las Palmas and 3.50 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid?

Las Palmas 1-0 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 29%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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