Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.62
Over
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.55
2-3
42%
1.76
4-5
20%
4.43
6+
11%
23.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.4
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
12%
5.09
X/2
11%
6.47
X/X
15%
3.96
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
13%
4.94
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.42/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.33
+2% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
25.0 Crosses 17.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Valencia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.81 xG 1.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
264 Passes 296
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.12.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
12.05.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
19.12.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
03.04.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 0-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
10.09.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
11.04.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1-1
AWAY Valencia
0.49 xG 1.99
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
369 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 14
32 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano and Valencia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 57% of the ball to Valencia's 43%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.49 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.67 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 38%, draw 31%, Valencia 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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