Barakaldo 2-3 Sestao River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.62
Over
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.48
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
21%
4.36
6+
9%
23.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+1.1pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.8pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barakaldo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestao River EU Bookmakers 29%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.40/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.29
+1% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barakaldo
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Sestao River
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
23.11.2024 Sestao River Sestao River 0-1 HT 0-0 Barakaldo Barakaldo İS3
07.12.2013 Barakaldo Barakaldo 1-0 HT 1-0 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barakaldo
2-3
AWAY Sestao River
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Barakaldo vs Sestao River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestao River nicked a narrow win over Barakaldo 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Barakaldo at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barakaldo had 47% of the ball to Sestao River's 53%, shots finished 16-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Barakaldo had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Barakaldo and 0.00 for Sestao River.

What was the final score of Barakaldo vs Sestao River?

Barakaldo 2-3 Sestao River in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barakaldo vs Sestao River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barakaldo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Barakaldo 48%, draw 23%, Sestao River 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Barakaldo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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