Lugo 1-0 Real Sociedad II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.52
Over
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2.22
2-3
38%
1.76
4-5
19%
5.08
6+
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad II EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +17%
1.19/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.82
-8% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses 18.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugo
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Real Sociedad II
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.94 xG 1.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
200 Passes 410
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II 1-0 HT 1-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
27.01.2024 Lugo Lugo 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II İS3
23.09.2023 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
05.02.2022 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II 1-1 HT 0-1 Lugo Lugo İS2
21.08.2021 Lugo Lugo 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
1-0
AWAY Real Sociedad II
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 12
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Real Sociedad II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo nicked a narrow win over Real Sociedad II 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lugo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lugo had 38% of the ball to Real Sociedad II's 62%, shots finished 6-19.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Lugo and 0.60 for Real Sociedad II.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Real Sociedad II?

Lugo 1-0 Real Sociedad II in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Real Sociedad II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lugo 43%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad II 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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