Real Sociedad II 1-0 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.51
Over
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.25
2-3
42%
1.79
4-5
17%
5.47
6+
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Sociedad II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.22/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.63
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +78%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.7 Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Sociedad II
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Lugo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.03 xG 0.94
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
410 Passes 200
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.01.2024 Lugo Lugo 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II İS3
23.09.2023 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
05.02.2022 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II 1-1 HT 0-1 Lugo Lugo İS2
21.08.2021 Lugo Lugo 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad II
1-0
AWAY Lugo
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Sociedad II vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Sociedad II nicked a narrow win over Lugo 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Real Sociedad II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Real Sociedad II had 47% of the ball to Lugo's 53%, shots finished 10-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lugo led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Real Sociedad II and 0.75 for Lugo.

What was the final score of Real Sociedad II vs Lugo?

Real Sociedad II 1-0 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Sociedad II vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Sociedad II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad II 38%, draw 29%, Lugo 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Sociedad II), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Sociedad II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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