Lecce 0-3 Como — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 19 Apr 2025

Lecce
0-3 HT 0-1
Como
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Lecce vs Como Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.39
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
13%
7.4
X/2
16%
4.94
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
17%
2.87
2/X
10%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-4.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lecce v Como — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Como EU Bookmakers 49%
-12% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.08/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.92
-29% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.4 Crosses 13.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Lecce vs Como Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Como
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.52 xG 1.40
55% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
382 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.12.2024 Como Como 2-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
13.08.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-0 HT 1-0 Como Como İTK
05.02.2022 Como Como 1-1 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTB
29.08.2021 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-1 Como Como İTB

Lecce 0-3 Como — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
0-3
AWAY Como
0.67 xG 1.34
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
204 Passes 301
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 15
30 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Como
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como swept aside Lecce 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (30% / 29% / 40%) promised a tight game; Como found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lecce had 44% of the ball to Como's 56%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 0.67 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Lecce and 1.00 for Como.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Como?

Lecce 0-3 Como in the Italy - Serie A on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Como?

Before kick-off our model rated an Como win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lecce 30%, draw 29%, Como 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Como), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Como) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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