Monza 0-1 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 19 Apr 2025

Monza
0-1 HT 0-0
Napoli
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Monza vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.18
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
59%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.19
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 26% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
15.6
1/2
8%
24.65
1/X
9%
24.2
X/1
4%
17.05
X/2
16%
3.72
X/X
8%
6.53
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
35%
1.61
2/X
6%
20.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
11%
+7.5pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.8pp
59%
Away Win
70%
-11.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.2pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 75%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.06/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/0.89
+46% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +3%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 487 · 84%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
16.6 Crosses 18.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Monza vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Napoli
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.69 xG 1.70
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
349 Passes 461
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
07.04.2024 Monza Monza 2-4 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
29.12.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
14.05.2023 Monza Monza 2-0 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
21.08.2022 Napoli Napoli 4-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA

Monza 0-1 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
0-1
AWAY Napoli
0.86 xG 1.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
288 Passes 470
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monza vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli edged past Monza 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Monza had 40% of the ball to Napoli's 60%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.86 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Monza and 2.00 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Monza vs Napoli?

Monza 0-1 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Monza 18%, draw 23%, Napoli 59%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ BTTS No
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