Austin 1-0 Los Angeles Galaxy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.51
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.8
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
16%
4.87
X/2
7%
7.28
X/X
13%
5.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.75
2/2
16%
5.2
2/X
7%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.75 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.79/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.53
+23% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
394 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 81%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
22.8 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.19 xG 2.14
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
346 Passes 427
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 HT 1-0 Austin Austin ABD
27.04.2024 Austin Austin 2-0 HT 2-0 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
25.09.2023 Austin Austin 3-3 HT 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
23.04.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
30.05.2022 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 4-1 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
09.05.2022 Austin Austin 0-1 HT 0-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
1-0
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
3.14 xG 0.85
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
358 Passes 360
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Austin vs Los Angeles Galaxy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin squeezed past Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Austin as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Austin had 50% of the ball to Los Angeles Galaxy's 50%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 3.14 to 0.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Austin's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Los Angeles Galaxy led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Austin and 2.00 for Los Angeles Galaxy.

What was the final score of Austin vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Austin 1-0 Los Angeles Galaxy in the USA - Major League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Austin 44%, draw 26%, Los Angeles Galaxy 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austin) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Austin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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