Ludogorets Razgrad 2-1 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.18
Draw
25%
5.28
Away
15%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.75
No
50%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
79%
-19.9pp
25%
Draw
15%
+10.0pp
15%
Away Win
5%
+9.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
32%
+17.4pp
50%
BTTS No
68%
-17.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 8%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
2.72/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.99
+41% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +4%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
309 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 161 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Spartak Varna
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-3 HT 1-1 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad BUL1
04.04.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 2-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BULK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad
2-1
AWAY Spartak Varna
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ludogorets Razgrad vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ludogorets Razgrad edged past Spartak Varna 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ludogorets Razgrad as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ludogorets Razgrad had 63% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 37%, shots finished 16-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ludogorets Razgrad had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Ludogorets Razgrad and 1.00 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of Ludogorets Razgrad vs Spartak Varna?

Ludogorets Razgrad 2-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ludogorets Razgrad vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ludogorets Razgrad win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Ludogorets Razgrad 59%, draw 25%, Spartak Varna 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) ✓ Over 2.5
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