Botev Vratsa 3-1 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.48
Draw
34%
3.54
Away
48%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
19%
-1.3pp
34%
Draw
25%
+8.6pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 59%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.40/2.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/0.46
+59% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +85%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
194 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Vratsa
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-0 HT 1-0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
10.03.2024 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-2 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
30.06.2018 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-1 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Vratsa
3-1
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 0
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Vratsa saw off Arda Kardzhali 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arda Kardzhali at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botev Vratsa had 53% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 47%, shots finished 15-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.67 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali?

Botev Vratsa 3-1 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Botev Vratsa 18%, draw 34%, Arda Kardzhali 48%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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