Marsilya 5-1 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒22:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.16
Draw
20%
7.13
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.98
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.35
2-3 Goals
36%
2.26
4-5 Goals
27%
2.39
6+ Goals
17%
4.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.27
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
29.0
X/1
22%
4.0
X/2
6%
33.0
X/X
8%
12.2
2/1
10%
21.95
2/2
5%
27.5
2/X
5%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
82%
-16.9pp
20%
Draw
11%
+8.5pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+8.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 9%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
2.56/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.28
-4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -3%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
516 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.6 Crosses 14.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Montpellier
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.29 xG 0.92
64% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
472 Passes 234
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 0-5 HT 0-3 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
25.02.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 4-1 HT 2-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
20.12.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
31.03.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
02.01.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
10.04.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
5-1
AWAY Montpellier
3.73 xG 0.30
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
676 Passes 292
93% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya swept aside Montpellier 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Marsilya had 68% of the ball to Montpellier's 32%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 3.73 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Marsilya and 0.67 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Montpellier?

Marsilya 5-1 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 65%, draw 20%, Montpellier 15%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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