Montpellier 0-5 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 20 Oct 2024

Montpellier
0-5 HT 0-3
Marsilya
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Montpellier vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
41%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.55
No
39%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.96
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
30%
2.77
6+ Goals
13%
7.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.21
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
20.55
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
11%
9.22
X/2
12%
4.34
X/X
13%
5.98
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.2
2/X
6%
13.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.55 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
23%
+9.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
41%
Away Win
53%
-12.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.1pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 57%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
1.28/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.06
-25% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +17%
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 84%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
19.7 Crosses 21.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Montpellier vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Marsilya
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.75 xG 2.01
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
242 Passes 496
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 4-1 HT 2-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
20.12.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
31.03.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
02.01.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
10.04.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
29.01.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FRK

Montpellier 0-5 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
0-5
AWAY Marsilya
1.31 xG 3.36
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 2
238 Passes 513
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya swept aside Montpellier 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while both teams to score (61%) missed.

On the day, Montpellier had 35% of the ball to Marsilya's 65%, shots finished 13-21, expected goals 1.31 to 3.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Montpellier and 1.83 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Marsilya?

Montpellier 0-5 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 33%, draw 27%, Marsilya 41%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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