Auxerre 2-1 Reims — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 20 Oct 2024

Auxerre
2-1 HT 1-0
Reims
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Auxerre vs Reims Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.88
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
12%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 28% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.56
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
11%
6.87
X/2
12%
5.05
X/X
16%
4.79
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
22%
2.97
2/X
6%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Reims — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Reims EU Bookmakers 46%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.81/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.41
+23% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
19.4 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Auxerre vs Reims Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Reims
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 1.55
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
291 Passes 330
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.02.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 0-0 HT 0-0 Reims Reims FR1
23.10.2022 Reims Reims 2-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
24.04.2018 Auxerre Auxerre 1-4 HT 1-0 Reims Reims FR2
27.11.2017 Reims Reims 2-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
07.07.2017 Reims Reims 1-2 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre HAZ
03.03.2017 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-0 Reims Reims FR2

Auxerre 2-1 Reims — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
2-1
AWAY Reims
2.81 xG 1.08
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 9
197 Passes 406
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Reims
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre squeezed past Reims 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Auxerre made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Auxerre had 35% of the ball to Reims's 65%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 2.81 to 1.08 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auxerre's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Reims led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Auxerre and 1.83 for Reims.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Reims?

Auxerre 2-1 Reims in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Reims?

Before kick-off our model rated an Reims win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 32%, draw 28%, Reims 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Reims), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Reims) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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