De Graafschap 2-0 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.31
2-3 Goals
40%
2.11
4-5 Goals
24%
2.43
6+ Goals
15%
4.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.69
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
16%
4.32
X/2
5%
14.2
X/X
10%
8.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
18.4
2/2
9%
10.15
2/X
5%
18.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.4 — our 16% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-6.7pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.1pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
1.88/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.78
+0% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
25.1 Crosses 11.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ajax II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.90 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
301 Passes 390
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.03.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-2 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
21.08.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
13.01.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
22.08.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 5-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
06.05.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-0
AWAY Ajax II
2.49 xG 0.14
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
416 Passes 338
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
42 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap saw off Ajax II 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 55% of the ball to Ajax II's 45%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 2.49 to 0.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for De Graafschap and 1.83 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Ajax II?

De Graafschap 2-0 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 59%, draw 22%, Ajax II 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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