Mafra 1-4 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 19 Apr 2026

📅19/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.51
Over 2.5
46%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.56/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.21
+22% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Amarante
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.02.2026 Amarante Amarante 1-0 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
1-4
AWAY Amarante
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante swept aside Mafra 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Mafra at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mafra had 56% of the ball to Amarante's 44%, shots finished 12-10.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Amarante?

Mafra 1-4 Amarante in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mafra 41%, draw 27%, Amarante 32%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mafra), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
19 Apr 2026
13:00 Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Uniao Santarem Analysis →
17:00 Dezembro vs Amora FC Analysis →
21:00 Academica vs CF Os Belenenses Analysis →