Amarante 1-0 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.0pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 42%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.03/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.77
-17% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +61%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
1-0
AWAY Mafra
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante nicked a narrow win over Mafra 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Mafra at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Amarante had 40% of the ball to Mafra's 60%, shots finished 13-15.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Mafra?

Amarante 1-0 Mafra in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Amarante 34%, draw 25%, Mafra 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mafra) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
21 Feb 2026
14:00 Uniao Santarem vs Vitoria Guimaraes II Analysis →
18:00 Sao Joao Ver vs Fafe Analysis →
20:30 Varzim vs Trofense Analysis →
23:00 CF Os Belenenses vs Academica Analysis →