Sao Joao Ver 1-0 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
47%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 54%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.15/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.29
+0% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
195 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Joao Ver
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fafe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.01.2026 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 0-4 HT 0-2 Fafe Fafe POR3
05.10.2025 Fafe Fafe 2-0 HT 0-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
11.01.2025 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 4-1 HT 1-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
28.09.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
29.04.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
07.04.2023 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 1-2 HT 1-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Joao Ver
1-0
AWAY Fafe
50% Ball Possession 50%
5 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Joao Ver vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Joao Ver squeezed past Fafe 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fafe at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sao Joao Ver had 50% of the ball to Fafe's 50%, shots finished 5-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fafe led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sao Joao Ver and 1.83 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Sao Joao Ver vs Fafe?

Sao Joao Ver 1-0 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Joao Ver vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sao Joao Ver 29%, draw 24%, Fafe 47%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fafe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✓ Under 2.5
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