Portland Hearts of Pine 1-1 Naples — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 19 Apr 2026

📅19/04/2026 · 🕒22:43 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Naples EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.60/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.21
+25% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +50%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.2 Crosses 15.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Naples
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.71 xG 1.23
57% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
318 Passes 214
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
32 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2025 Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0 HT 1-0 Naples USL1
18.05.2025 Portland Hearts of Pine 2-1 HT 1-0 Naples USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
1-1
AWAY Naples
1.20 xG 0.53
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
202 Passes 298
68% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine and Naples couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Portland Hearts of Pine at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Portland Hearts of Pine had 42% of the ball to Naples's 58%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.20 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Portland Hearts of Pine had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Portland Hearts of Pine and 0.50 for Naples.

What was the final score of Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples?

Portland Hearts of Pine 1-1 Naples in the USA - USL League 1 on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Hearts of Pine win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Portland Hearts of Pine 43%, draw 27%, Naples 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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