Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0 Naples — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 22 Sep 2025

Portland Hearts of Pine
1-0 HT 1-0
Naples
📅22/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - USL League 1 – 2025

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.8pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portland Hearts of Pine v Naples — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Naples EU Bookmakers 29%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.29/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.14
-80% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 72%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.7 Crosses 14.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Naples
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 0.74
72% Ball Possession 28%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
381 Passes 97
84% Pass Accuracy 59%
34 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.05.2025 Portland Hearts of Pine 2-1 HT 1-0 Naples USL1

Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0 Naples — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
1-0
AWAY Naples
2.36 xG 1.72
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
255 Passes 330
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine nicked a narrow win over Naples 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Portland Hearts of Pine as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Portland Hearts of Pine had 43% of the ball to Naples's 57%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.36 to 1.72.

What was the final score of Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples?

Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0 Naples in the USA - USL League 1 on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Naples?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Hearts of Pine win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Portland Hearts of Pine 44%, draw 24%, Naples 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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