Louisville City vs Sporting JAX Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Louisville City v Sporting JAX — Team-Based Signals
Louisville City 1-0 Sporting JAX — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City squeezed past Sporting JAX 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Louisville City had 65% of the ball to Sporting JAX's 35%, shots finished 23-1, expected goals 2.32 to 0.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Louisville City's control.
What was the final score of Louisville City vs Sporting JAX?
Louisville City 1-0 Sporting JAX in the USL Championship on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Sporting JAX?
Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 69%, draw 16%, Sporting JAX 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.