SS Monopoli 1-1 Virtus Francavilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.53
6+ Goals
8%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 37% vs market 32.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.3pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SS Monopoli EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Virtus Francavilla EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -28%
1.50/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/1.47
-6% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SS Monopoli
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2024 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 1-1 HT 0-0 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli İTC
26.02.2024 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 0-0 HT 0-0 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli İTC
20.10.2023 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla İTC
26.03.2023 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 2-0 HT 2-0 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli İTC
27.11.2022 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla İTC
04.05.2022 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SS Monopoli
1-1
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH SS Monopoli vs Virtus Francavilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SS Monopoli and Virtus Francavilla shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was SS Monopoli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, SS Monopoli had 61% of the ball to Virtus Francavilla's 39%, shots finished 8-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, SS Monopoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for SS Monopoli and 0.50 for Virtus Francavilla.

What was the final score of SS Monopoli vs Virtus Francavilla?

SS Monopoli 1-1 Virtus Francavilla in the Italy - Serie C on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SS Monopoli vs Virtus Francavilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a SS Monopoli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split SS Monopoli 44%, draw 29%, Virtus Francavilla 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (SS Monopoli), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SS Monopoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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