Academica 2-3 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.1pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.45/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.54
-65% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Varzim
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 1.46
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 247
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Varzim Varzim 0-2 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR3
19.07.2023 Academica Academica 2-1 Varzim Varzim HAZ
22.01.2022 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR2
14.08.2021 Academica Academica 1-1 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR2
01.03.2021 Academica Academica 1-2 HT 1-1 Varzim Varzim POR2
23.11.2020 Academica Academica 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academica
2-3
AWAY Varzim
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Academica vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim nicked a narrow win over Academica 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Academica at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Academica had 53% of the ball to Varzim's 47%, shots finished 11-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Academica had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Academica and 0.83 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Academica vs Varzim?

Academica 2-3 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Academica 43%, draw 29%, Varzim 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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