Lusitania FC Lourosa 3-2 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.59/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.11
+81% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 4.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Alverca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 5
31.03.2024 Alverca Alverca 3-1 HT 2-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
3-2
AWAY Alverca
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa edged past Alverca 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 67% of the ball to Alverca's 33%, shots finished 19-8.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Alverca?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 3-2 Alverca in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 43%, draw 26%, Alverca 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Under 2.5
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