Diala 1-4 Baghdad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 19 May 2026

📅19/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Diala EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Baghdad EU Bookmakers 30%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.45/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.63
+12% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -35%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
438 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Diala
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Baghdad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
13.09.2025 Baghdad Baghdad 1-2 HT 0-0 Diala Diala IRAK
POST-MATCH Diala vs Baghdad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baghdad swept aside Diala 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Diala at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

What was the final score of Diala vs Baghdad?

Diala 1-4 Baghdad in the Iraq - Premier League on 19/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Diala vs Baghdad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Diala win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Diala 42%, draw 27%, Baghdad 32%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Diala), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Diala) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
IRAK More Iraq - Premier League
19 May 2026
17:30 Al Kahrabaa vs Al Gharraf Analysis →
17:30 Al-Qasim vs Naft Maysan Analysis →
20:00 Al Talaba vs Al Karma Analysis →
20:00 Naft vs Duhok Analysis →