19/07/2024
·
21:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-4
2nd Score
0-3
Taffs Well vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
Over 2.5
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
26%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
10%
16%
Draw
11%
58%
Away Win
79%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Taffs Well v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Taffs Well
EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY
Merthyr Town
EU Bookmakers 84%
-15% /
-15%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-100%
/
-20%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
36%
Ball Possession
64%
8
Total Shots
17
3
Shots on Target
8
3
Corners
7
192 · 68%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
498 · 85%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Taffs Well vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Merthyr Town got the better of Taffs Well 3-1 away from home.
As we said in the preview, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Taffs Well vs Merthyr Town?
Taffs Well 1-3 Merthyr Town in the Wales - League Cup on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Taffs Well vs Merthyr Town?
Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Taffs Well 26%, draw 16%, Merthyr Town 58%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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GALLK
More Wales - League Cup
19 Jul 2024