Sporting Braga 3-1 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.21
Over 2.5
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.56
No
38%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.95
4-5 Goals
30%
2.97
6+ Goals
9%
8.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.4
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
15%
4.72
X/2
13%
8.54
X/X
9%
5.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.1
2/2
11%
5.99
2/X
8%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.3pp
62%
BTTS Yes
60%
+1.7pp
38%
BTTS No
40%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 29%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.98/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.82
+15% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
406 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo HAZ
27.07.2018 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
3-1
AWAY Celta Vigo
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga got the better of Celta Vigo 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 56% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 44%, shots finished 7-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.50 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Celta Vigo?

Sporting Braga 3-1 Celta Vigo in the Friendlies on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 45%, draw 25%, Celta Vigo 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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