Mazatlan 2-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.59
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.38/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.47
+6% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
16.6 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Puebla
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.15 xG 1.48
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
322 Passes 347
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.01.2025 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
31.08.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
03.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 3-2 HT 1-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
23.08.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
11.02.2023 Puebla Puebla 3-1 HT 3-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
02.07.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-4 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
2-1
AWAY Puebla
0.95 xG 0.84
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
221 Passes 338
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 17
6 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan nicked a narrow win over Puebla 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Mazatlan made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mazatlan had 41% of the ball to Puebla's 59%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.95 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mazatlan and 1.83 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Puebla?

Mazatlan 2-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 37%, draw 29%, Puebla 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mazatlan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mazatlan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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