Necaxa 3-1 Queretaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.15
6+ Goals
10%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 25% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
21%
Away Win
22%
-0.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.9pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Queretaro EU Bookmakers 25%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +21%
1.73/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.57
+22% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
310 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
22.1 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Queretaro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.95 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
302 Passes 262
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
28.09.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
03.05.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
17.02.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
30.12.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa HAZ
28.08.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
3-1
AWAY Queretaro
2.58 xG 0.25
73% Ball Possession 27%
26 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
603 Passes 176
90% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 4
24 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Queretaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa got the better of Queretaro 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Necaxa had 73% of the ball to Queretaro's 27%, shots finished 26-3, expected goals 2.58 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Necaxa and 0.67 for Queretaro.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Queretaro?

Necaxa 3-1 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Queretaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 52%, draw 27%, Queretaro 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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