Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 FC Sochi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.91
4-5 Goals
21%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
9.81
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 26% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.34
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
15%
4.64
X/2
10%
9.06
X/X
8%
5.41
2/1
9%
22.0
2/2
9%
6.61
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.3pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -24%
1.56/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.46
-9% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
19.2 Crosses 15.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Sochi
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.48 xG 1.07
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
304 Passes 351
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 2-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
27.08.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
08.05.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
08.10.2022 FC Sochi FC Sochi 4-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
17.04.2022 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-2 HT 2-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
25.10.2021 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3-0
AWAY FC Sochi
2.64 xG 0.57
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
252 Passes 365
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Sochi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow swept aside FC Sochi 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 43% of the ball to FC Sochi's 57%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.64 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.50 for FC Sochi.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Sochi?

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 FC Sochi in the Russia - Premier League on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Sochi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 49%, draw 24%, FC Sochi 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5
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