Spartak Moskova 1-0 Makhachkala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
29%
4.49
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.55
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 32% vs market 23.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.64
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
20.35
X/1
12%
3.7
X/2
6%
16.6
X/X
16%
6.3
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
7%
15.3
2/X
5%
23.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
69%
-14.0pp
29%
Draw
20%
+9.1pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.4pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.01/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.82
-9% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +44%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.9 Crosses 14.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Makhachkala
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.25 xG 0.69
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
446 Passes 127
83% Pass Accuracy 54%
32 Box Touches 12
40 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.04.2025 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-2 HT 0-2 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUS
22.10.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
15.09.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 1-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.08.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-1 HT 0-1 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
1-0
AWAY Makhachkala
1.62 xG 0.70
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 3
393 Passes 173
85% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova nicked a narrow win over Makhachkala 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 63% of the ball to Makhachkala's 37%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.62 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Makhachkala led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Spartak Moskova and 1.00 for Makhachkala.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala?

Spartak Moskova 1-0 Makhachkala in the Russia - Premier League on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 55%, draw 29%, Makhachkala 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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